More thwarted attacks in Canada

Some things in life happen because of a lot of little decisions over time — if you don’t brush your teeth you’re going to get cavities; others happen very quickly — you might see a TV program about a hobby only once and it becomes something that you do through your whole life. Radicalisation is more like the latter than the former.

As a rule of thumb, in Western countries about 1 in 10,000 Muslims becomes a violent extremist. So that means that 9,999 people in the same families, suburbs, schools, work environments, with the same access to government services, and with the same neighbours don’t become radicalised. Right away, that’s a pretty strong signal that the causes of radicalisation are not macro causes, but much smaller ones, related to individual personalities and life journeys. The problem isn’t with any government’s international policies, or with it’s domestic policies, or with its social support system; it’s about the accidental events. Which means that there isn’t a lot to be done about it via the heavy hammers of government programs.

It also means that finding people who have become violent extremists is difficult. There is an advantage to a global brand like al Qaeda: it encourages wannabees to get in touch with it, providing an opportunity for intelligence and law enforcement to notice. Canada’s record at finding Islamist violent extremists before they carry out attacks has been good, much better than its record at finding those who’ve been blowing up hydro towers and banks precisely because these other violent extremists don’t need to communicate outside of whatever their small group is.

We’ll wait to see if Nuttall and Korody really did ‘self-radicalise’ without any contact with someone who was already radicalised, and whether the security services got onto them without a tipoff from someone who knew them — if either of these, that will be a first for Canada.

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