Deception scores for the UEA emails

I’ve also calculated the deception scores for the UEA “climategate” emails, using the same methodology that I’ve written about in the context of the speeches of presidential candidates.

This doesn’t (yet) give any great results. This is partly because deception scores can only be computed for sets of similar documents. The UEA emails, however, fall into two broad classes: simple emails, and discussions and suggestions about more formal documents (papers and grant proposals). The language in these two classes is quite different, which makes them difficult to compare. For example, the base rates of first-person singular pronouns are very different.

What I have done is to see whether there are any patterns in  deception scores with time. A strong change in either class of email should be detectable as a variation of score with time, which might be visible. The result is shown below, with the deception score axis running from right (low) to left (high), and the markers getting lighter with the passage of time.

Deception scores of UEA emails

The only thing that strikes me so far is that many emails with low deception scores are older in time. This might be taken to indicate some kind of change in the language patterns of these email users.

The released emails are a small and not very random set of all of the emails sent by these individuals. So not too much should be read into this plot.


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