Posts Tagged 'election'

Canadian Federal Election — first analysis

I’ve done some analysis of the party leader speeches from the first week of campaigning. I am somewhat hampered by lack of data; only one speech by Jack Layton has been posted, and there are only three by Dion.

About the only conclusion so far is that language patterns are all over the place. There is no consistency in any of the campaigns. This might be because speechwriters are still settling in (but surely Harper’s at least must have known the election was coming?). Or it may be that all of the campaigns are unsure of their strategies in some less-conscious way. But it’s interesting, and slightly puzzling.

I’ll await more data.

Improving the process of detecting deception

The main problem with Pennebaker’s deception model, discussed in an earlier post, is that the signal for deception for two of the word classes is a decrease in word frequencies. But a decrease with respect to what? Without some care, a text that does not use any of certain word classes can look unusually deceptive, just because it happens not to use certain kinds of words. For example, formal business writing almost never uses first-person singular pronouns (“I”, “me”, “my”) so an occasional text that used one or two might be considered undeceptive just on that basis.

It’s better to consider the deceptiveness of a group of documents or texts from a common domain, and rank them from most to least deceptive, rather than imagining that deception is a kind of absolute property. Then it’s clear that decrease means “frequencies that are lower compared to the norms of documents in this domain”.

It also turns out to be useful to consider the correlations between word usage across the documents in a domain. There may be conventions about the way in which ideas are expressed that go beyond simple word frequencies. So deception detection is improved by considering the correlation among messages, and using it to pick out documents that are more unusual for enhanced consideration. This is the approach I’ve used to look at Enron emails and politicians’ speeches, for example
here for the US presidential election in February 2008, and
for the Canadian Federal election in 2006.